In Campaign 2000, little-noticed (at least by the national press) factors in a few states could decide what may be the closest race since Kennedy-Nixon in 1960. In Michigan, for example, TV time–or the lack of it–is critical. So much time has been bought by so many candidates and causes that there’s almost none left for broadcasters to sell. And whom does that help? Bush perhaps. Pro-choice forces are planning a major TV assault on him in the state, but may not be able to get the time slots they want for the message. At least Engler hopes so. “They may get crowded out by all the existing buys,” he says.
Here are some other under-the-national-radar factors that might decide the outcome of this campaign: bulletThe Governors. Bush isn’t saying so explicitly, but he’s relying heavily in the last weeks of this race on GOP governors in major “swing” states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin and, of course, Florida, where his brother is The Man. Will the GOP “machines” in those places produce? If they do, Bush will owe his victory to them.
The Old-Line Unions. Pundits focus on debates, or the new-age service unions, but the industrial union halls are the place where the rubber meets the road for Al Gore. The Steelworkers in Pennsylvania and Auto Workers in Michigan have to turn out their vote, big time, for the vice president.
Oil Prices. On a broad level, voters don’t seem to see a difference between Gore and Bush on the question of who can stop the rise. But in West Virginia, a state surprisingly in play, the price hikes have given new impetus to a wildly popular local idea: burn more coal. Bush is making that case, and Mine Workers (who have had major differences with Gore) like what he is saying.
The Carnahan Connection. Mel Carnahan of Missouri is the only Democratic governor of a midwestern industrial swing state, and he’s on the ballot this year running for Senate. That’s good news for Gore: Carnahan is not only an incumbent, but a popular one. Both the Senate race and the presidential race are close, but every Democrat will turn out–which should help Gore.
Voucher Voters. There are broadly-worded school voucher initiatives on the ballot in several states, but the one that matters is in–you guessed it–Michigan. It’s so broadly worded, in fact, that Engler is opposed to it. How does Engler’s stand play? Will that bring out voucher opponents (most of them Democrats) to put down the measure? No one is sure, not even Engler. “I’m not sure how it’s going to play,” he says. We’ll find out, on Election Day.
