Beijing, in fact, is probably more like Seoul in 1988 than Berlin in 1936. There is no question that the current Chinese leadership will get a boost from a successful Olympic bid. But I think, just like South Korea’s generals in the late 1980s, unable or unwilling to suppress a flowering democracy movement, even they do not realize how constrained they will be by such a victory.
As is often noted, China is entering a period of dramatically intensified stresses. The regime faces an almost complete turnover of its top leadership early next year. Job losses in money-losing state enterprises are fueling urban discontent; arbitrary fees and rampant corruption are enraging farmers. The Internet and increased economic interdependency are connecting Chinese to the wider world and expanding their expectations, even as old problems like separatist sentiment in Xinjiang and Tibet persist. And amid all this potential chaos, a regime accustomed to the arbitrary and unchallenged exercise of power will have less flexibility to act than ever.
If Beijing is awarded the Games, we can reasonably expect that the chance of war across the Taiwan Strait will diminish. Taiwan supports Beijing’s Olympic bid, and commercial relations between China and Taiwan are booming. Both sides know war is bad for business. Just as Chinese membership in the WTO, which now looks likely by late 2001 or early 2002, will oblige Beijing to play by accepted international rules, having the Olympics on the schedule should help keep more hostile and confrontational members of the regime in check. And most important, both developments should afford the Chinese people an opportunity to expand upon the limited political and economic freedoms they have won so far.
China lost out to Sydney by two votes in 1993, when it was decided which city would host the 2000 Games. The United States strongly resisted giving China those Olympics. This did nothing for the Chinese people. On the contrary, the rejection presented the Chinese government of the time an emotional cause with which to flail the United States. All the old racist, colonial, imperialist themes were dragged out by the dinosaurs in China’s propaganda apparatus. We do not have to appease these monsters. But there is no reason to feed them–especially when there can be no good outcome.
I’m reminded of a conversation I had with George Bush, then president, after the June 1989 crackdown in Tiananmen Square. Many shaven-headed young men who’d been arrested were to be put on trial. The president was concerned about what would happen to these young people and the effect this would have on Chinese-American relations. He asked me, “Jim, do you think the Chinese authorities would do anything if we asked them [to be lenient]?” I replied, “Yes, they’ll probably deal with the prisoners in private instead of in public.” If China gets to host the 2008 Olympics, its leaders may simply decide to practice their repression more quietly, if they can get away with it. Or, one hopes, they may be forced to find other, more benign and effective ways of handling their many and multiplying problems.
